When it comes to making winning props wagers, there may not be more qualified handicapper/betting analyst in the industry…and forgive me for tooting my own horn, but hey, at least I’m honest!
Props bets, both short-term game props and season-long props are a specialty of mine that I’ve developed over the years and I’m going to share some of the secrets of my online betting success right now.
Football Prop Betting Strategy Highlights 1, 3, 5 Method And More
Short-Term or Game Props Betting
For short-term or single game props betting, to ensure I’m making an informed wager, the first thing I do is look at the most recent performance of a particular player or team – and that of the team I’m wagering against. For example, if I’m betting on how many yards Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is going to rush for and he’s going up against a new York Giants team that shut him down in the teams’ first divisional meeting, I’m probably going to be leaning toward another stout effort from New York’s defense based on their most recent performance against Elliott.
Now, let’s say the Giants shut Elliott down in Week 2, but have gown south against the run for several weeks before meeting the Cowboys again in Week 7, then I’d be more inclined to say that Elliott was in for a big performance against the G-Men even though they shut him down in their previous meeting. Again, in keeping with the recent performance theme, if you’re betting on the passing yardage total on Miami U. quarterback Brad Kaaya and he’s thrown for at least 250 yards in three of four consecutive games, well, I’d say the likelihood of Kaaya to top 250 passing yards in his next contest would be pretty high.
However, when taking into consideration, his upcoming opponent’s recent play, that could change, if Miami is facing a Clemson team that hasn’t allowed a 250-yard passing day in, let’s say three games. Recent performance of both, the team or player you want to bet on – and their opponent – is of utmost importance when making short-term or single game props bets.
Season-long Props Betting
When I’m making my beloved season-long props bets, I use a method I’ve developed all on my own, called the 1-3-5 method. Let’s say I’m betting on the season-long passing yards for San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. The first thing to do is look at how many passing yards Rivers threw for a year ago. This figure will represent a number close to what Rivers’ Over/Under total may be, so looking back one year is a good barometer of where to begin.
Even better, go back two more years to see how many passing yards Rivers threw for and average those three seasons together. If possible, go back five seasons and do the same. This method almost always gives me a great idea of how a player like Rivers will perform in the upcoming campaign.
Of course, along with the 1-3-5 method, you also have to take into consideration other factors such as, motivation, return from injury and age to name a few. However, a player’s track record over a 1-3 and 5-year span will give you a great idea of what to expect when it comes to season-long props bets.
Total Props Betting
When it comes to total props bets, the best indicator of what lies ahead is a look back at the past, most importantly, the recent past. Have the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals made a habit out of making low-scoring affairs that generally play under their set O/U totals? Is one of both teams struggling to score the ball or vice versa, putting up a ton of points in recent weeks?