On Thursday, the Miami Heat takes on the Milwaukee Bucks an underdog against the spread. With a win, Milwaukee can take a step closer to clinching the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Not that it matters this season. Still, the Bucks want to sharpen their play before the real playoffs start. Will Giannis and Co. cover against one of the better defensive teams in the league? Or, will Miami figure out a way to make this one closer than the spread? Let’s take a closer look at this upcoming matchup so you can wager on their NBA odds.

NBA Miami Heat Vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds & Analysis

• When: Thursday, August 6 at 4:00 pm ET
• Where: Disney World Resort, Orlando, FL
• Heat Vs Bucks Live: NBA League Pass
• ATS Odds: Heat -9 ½ 

Why bet on Miami Heat to cover +9 ½

The spread is way too high on a team that’s gone 2-1 SU since the restart. The Heat are also 2-1 ATS. They covered as a -4 favorite over the Denver Nuggets, failed to cover against the Raptors, and then beat Boston 112-106 as a +5 underdog. In the failed cover versus Toronto, Miami lost by 4 points as a +2 ½ dog. This squad can hang with the best team in the Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat Expected Starting Five

• F – Jimmy Butler
• F – Jae Crowder
• C – Bam Adebayo
• G – Kendrick Nunn
• G – Duncan Robinson

Why bet on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover -9 ½

Milwaukee averages 118.6 points per. That ranks first in the NBA. The team scored 116 against Brooklyn in their last game. They posted 116 against Houston on August 2 and 119 versus Boston on July 31. The Bucks have their offense going on Wednesday, which means they could beat the Heat and cover. 

Milwaukee Bucks Expected Starting Five

• F – Khris Middleton
• F – Giannis Antetokounmpo
• C – Robin Lopez
• G – George Hill
• G – Eric Bledsoe

Heat vs Bucks Betting Trends

• Over is 10-5 in Heat’s last 15 games
• Heat are 8-3 ATS in last 11 versus Milwaukee
• Miami is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games on a Thursday
• Heat are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games
• Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
• Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
• Under is 8-3 in Milwaukee’s last 11 games

Heat vs Bucks Final Betting Analysis

Milwaukee has yet to get on track in Orlando. The Bucks have lost 2-of-3 during the restart. That’s 2 losses from 3 games where they were favored by at least 3 ½ points. The last loss is somewhat worrisome. Brooklyn beat the Bucks 119-116 as a +18 ½ underdog. But Milwaukee isn’t fighting for a playoff spot. 

They’re just playing basketball. If the Bucks decide to turn it on against the Heat, they can. The guess here, though, is that they won’t. Miami is in playoff mode already while Milwaukee has yet to get into regular season mode. 

9 ½ are way too many points to give up to a scorching squad like the Heat. Consider the moneyline if you want to make a riskier play. Also, the Heat are worth backing all the way down to +6 because they dominated the Bucks in the last head-to-head.   

NBA Free Pick: Heat +9 ½