The Miami Dolphins were oh so close to taking their first win of the season. In Week 6, facing a dreadful Washington Redskins squad, the Dolphins only lost 16-17. On Sunday, they take on the tough Buffalo Bills. Will the Fins break through with another cover victory? Or, will Buffalo add to Miami’s atrocious season? Check out the NFL odds, analysis and a free pick for Dolphins vs Bills!

Dolphins vs Bills 2019 NFL Week 7 Lines, Analysis & Prediction

• When: Sunday, Oct. 20 at 1:00pm ET
• Where: New Era Field, Buffalo, NY
• TV: CBS
• Radio: Dolphins / Bills
• Live Stream: CBS Sports
• ATS Odds: Bills -16 ½
• Over/Under Total Odds: 39 ½

Why Miami Dolphins are a good bet +16 ½?

On paper, it looks like Miami has no shot of keeping this close. However, there are a couple of things to think about. The Dolphins played so well against Washington after a bye week. Although Miami doesn’t have the players that Buffalo has, they did show that changes during the bye week led to much better play.

Miami has heart. They shouldn’t beat Buffalo straight up. Heart and drive, along with the tweaks the coaching staff made during the week off, could lead to a win against the spread, though.

Team Statistics

• Total Yards: 234.2
• Passing Yards: 176
• Rushing Yards: 58.2
• Points Scored: 8.4

• Total Yards: 439.8
• Passing Yards: 270.2
• Rushing Yards: 169.6
• Points Allowed: 36

Why Buffalo Bills are a good bet -16 ½?

Buffalo got Week 6 off. That alone gives the Bills a huge advantage in this game. Another advantage is that while the Dolphins are the worst offensive team in football, the Bills field one of the best defenses in football.

Buffalo’s defense allows 14 points per game. Opponents average 275 total yards. The Bills should do whatever they want on offense while either causing turnovers, or forcing the Dolphins into 3 and outs while on defense.

Team Statistics

• Total Yards: 372.4
• Passing Yards: 232.8
• Rushing Yards: 139.6
• Points Scored: 18

• Total Yards: 275
• Passing Yards: 187.2
• Rushing Yards: 87.8
• Points Allowed: 14

NFL Week 7 Betting Trends for Dolphins vs Bills

• Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
• Dolphins are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games versus the Bills
• The total went UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games
• Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
• Bills are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
• Under is 5 out of last 6 Bills games versus a division opponent

Dolphins vs Bills Final NFL Betting Analysis

The Miami Dolphins are one of the absolute worst teams in the history of the NFL. It would take a miracle for the Dolphins to beat Buffalo straight up. That won’t happen. What might happen is for Miami to keep this close, though.

After all, the Bills only average 18 points per game, which means they’d have to hit their average in order to cover. How possible is that? Very possible in this matchup. Miami’s defense allows an insane 169.6 rushing yards per. The Bills average 139.6 rushing yards on the ground.

Buffalo should score rushing touchdowns on each of their first 3 possessions. Unless, that is, they want to give Josh Allen some work throwing the ball deep. Either way, this sets up as a massive beat down. Buffalo will score at will while Miami will get lucky to post 3.

NFL Free Pick: Buffalo Bills -16 ½